AI Gloom Does Not Spell AI Doom

Once people saw how powerful generative AI (GenAI) was, they began to fear for their jobs.

AI pundits drew comparisons to lift operators in the early 1900s. When lifts were first introduced, they were hand-operated. Lift operator jobs were a thing.

Then people invented the microcontroller. The countdown to the end of lift operator jobs thus began.

By the 1970s, lift operator jobs were all but wiped out (except at some historical and tourist sites).

The “doomerist” view is that this will happen with every other job after the introduction of GenAI.

The outlook is bleak. And for good reason.

From the outside, GenAI almost seems sentient. That they have consciousness. A machine that is infinitely replicable with all the intelligence of the human race. If this is happening, it will actually make every human redundant.

But that’s not what GenAI is. It isn’t artificial general intelligence (or AGI). It isn’t conscious. It is the result of human intelligence as provided by the World Wide Web. What looks like “real thoughts” is nothing more than a synthesis of different perspectives digested from the Internet.

Even if AGI happens, reality is often not so cut and dry. We’ll put aside the economics of it and contrast the pessimistic and optimistic views.

The doomer talks about the loss of the lift operator job. The optimist talks about creation of the specialised technician and programmer jobs.

Yes, it’s not a 1:1 replacement. They are not the same jobs. It’s probable that, when given a choice, one would choose a lift operator job over a technician one. A different level of education is likely needed before one can become a programmer.

So the lift operator cannot simply just transition into another role with the snap of a finger.

BUT, the key takeaway is that the proliferation of GenAI is not a death sentence for jobs. Sure, companies will probably need fewer people to do the same jobs. But the number of companies is not constant.

The technology that makes these jobs redundant is also enabling/forcing new businesses to be created. And these businesses will need to hire.

It will be uncomfortable. It will be disruptive. And it will be uncertain.

The same can be said for our forefathers who sailed for months across vast oceans to eke out a living.

They had it worse, but they made it work. So will we.